MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0929

ACUS11 KWNS 012241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012240
NYZ000-020015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH NRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012240Z - 020015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM WRN THROUGH NRN
NY. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO EXPECTED SHORT /TWO
HOUR/ DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SERN ONTARIO SWWD
THROUGH WRN NY JUST EAST OF BUFFALO. OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NY WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM
SECTOR. THE STORMS OVER WRN NY RESIDE ALONG ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WITHIN ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH. EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM 40 KT OVER WRN NY TO AOB 30 KT FARTHER
EAST...WITH MLCAPE FROM 800-1200 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BECOME AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS AND MODEST MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.
HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WITH
LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...STORM INTENSITIES SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
DECREASE.

..DIAL/KERR.. 06/01/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 43527617 44377553 44737470 44637353 44177350 43737392
43207474 42897590 42597654 42237722 42267812 42667766
43077723 43527617

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