MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0930

ACUS11 KWNS 012254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012253
LAZ000-TXZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX NEWD TO NRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012253Z - 020000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG A
SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED PRIOR
TO 00Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
FAR NRN LA SWWD TO NEAR HILLSBORO TX...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERSECTING THE FRONT OVER NERN LA. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SOUTH OF
THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN LATE AFTN MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-3500 J/KG WITH NEGLIGIBLE MLCINH. RELATIVELY LIGHT
LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE RESULTED IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES
AOB 30 KTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CU FIELD OVER NRN LA. WIDELY SCTD
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH TSTMS
MOVING SEWD...POSSIBLY AS SMALL CLUSTERS. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

..BUNTING/KERR.. 06/01/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 32489192 32759257 32839364 32929469 32579584 31739773
31109783 30659750 30789637 31469393 31879212 32489192

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.