MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0964

ACUS11 KWNS 051653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051653
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-051830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT WED JUN 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN-CNTRL MS...NRN.-CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051653Z - 051830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN AR...NRN-CNTRL MS AND NRN-CNTRL AL. WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD WARM SECTOR LOCATED FROM THE
ARKLATEX EXTENDING EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY IN THE 1500 TO
2500 J/KG RANGE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LOCATED IN NRN MS WHERE CELLS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE.
ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EWD ACROSS AR AND THIS FEATURE
SHOULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT NEARS THE MS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/05/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34319125 33479162 32889135 32589034 32628868 32818710
33168605 33688543 34548526 35068548 35298625 34878800
34998899 35278942 35459017 35169086 34319125

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