MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0965

ACUS11 KWNS 051846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051845
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-052015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT WED JUN 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051845Z - 052015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NE NM AND MAY AFFECT
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH WITH ELY
UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM. TERRAIN EFFECTS ARE
LIKELY CAUSING THE FLOW TO VEER TO SLY IN THE RATON AREA WHERE CELLS
ARE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THAT MLCAPE VALUES IN NE NM ARE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE MID 50S F. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN MORE...THE STRONGER CORES SHOULD HAVE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY EXCEED 8.0 C/KM ACROSS
MUCH OF NE NM WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS MAKING WIND
DAMAGE POSSIBLE AS THE CELLS MATURE.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/05/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35120239 35220475 35640540 36420541 37110492 37220441
37000375 36670307 36180215 35580199 35120239

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