MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0966

ACUS11 KWNS 052056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052056
TXZ000-052230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT WED JUN 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052056Z - 052230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SW AND WCNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME
NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004 MB LOW OVER WEST TX
WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE 100 F. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW ON THE WRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES THAT MLCAPE
VALUES ACROSS SW AND WCNTRL TX ARE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS IN WEST TX WILL
MOVE EWD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS INITIATING
NEAR SAN ANGELO AROUND 22Z. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/05/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 29170112 30240035 30649968 31029889 31769840 32489831
32969869 33079919 33069994 32860059 32600085 32030122
31720140 31290166 30570249 30120267 29380261 28970217
29170112

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