MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1013

ACUS11 KWNS 101656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101656
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-101900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC INTO MUCH OF VA AND MD/DE TO FAR
SOUTHERN PA/NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101656Z - 101900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON
WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN NC INTO MUCH OF VA AND EVENTUALLY
ADJACENT PARTS OF MD/DE AND FAR SOUTHERN PA/NJ. WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND A TORNADO RISK BEING CONCERNS...PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE
LIKELY TO NEED A WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN A
BROAD/CONFLUENT WARM SECTOR ESPECIALLY FROM THE NC PIEDMONT INTO
SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OTHER DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST NEAR/WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SPINE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER FRONT. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIKELY BEEN HINDERING THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION/UPDRAFT VIGOR THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SOME THINNING OF
CLOUD COVER IS NOTED OUTSIDE ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS IS PROBABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...WITH AID OF THE
UPSTREAM APPROACHING/EASTWARD-MOVING OPENING UPPER LOW. AS
UPDRAFTS/STORMS MATURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PROBABLE
STRENGTHENING OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...A COMBINATION OF SEMI-DISCRETE/SMALLER SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A PROBABLE EVOLUTION OF RELATIVELY
FAST-MOVING LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES/LEWP
DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ASIDE FROM AN
ISOLATED TORNADO RISK.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 06/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 36227664 36548003 37168049 39777733 39627500 36887587
36227664

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