MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1014

ACUS11 KWNS 101833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101832
KYZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-102000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND EASTERN KY TO FAR WESTERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101832Z - 102000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WITH INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY ANTICIPATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO EASTERN KY AND EVENTUALLY FAR
WESTERN VA THIS AFTERNOON...DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
KY/TN BORDER VICINITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE IMMEDIATE
PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
OH VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RELATIVELY STRONG INSOLATION IS
OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPMENT...WITH RELATIVELY
CLOUD-FREE SKIES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 70S F/LOWER 80S F. AS
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MATURE...A BAND OF STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH 50+ KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM PER REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWPS...WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING INITIAL SUPERCELLS ALONG
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING/ACCELERATING BANDS OF
STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE/SEVERE
HAIL...BUT A TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 06/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 35058555 35038751 35558819 36208786 37008601 37858500
37988392 37468302 36308317 35728397 35058555

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