MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1030

ACUS11 KWNS 112008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112007
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-112100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MA...RI...ERN CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112007Z - 112100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL/LOCALIZED THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...MAY EXIST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW AREA OF
CLEARING ACROSS FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED INTO THE MID-70S F. A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WAS ALSO OBSERVED LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SRN CT/RI. SEVERAL
SHOWERS/LOW-TOPPED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A RIBBON OF ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY
WEAK...ONE PERSISTENT TSTM HAS BECOME ANCHORED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL CT AND HAS EXHIBITED OCCASIONAL WEAK LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION. A LOCALIZED/MARGINAL THREAT FOR A STRONG-SVR WIND GUST OR
TWO...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...MAY EXIST INVOF THE
BOUNDARY GIVEN MODERATELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND E-NELY SFC
WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 06/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON 41587034 41407078 41327146 41267193 41497229 41777232
41867214 41927155 42037095 42107041 42047010 41717003
41587034

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