MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1031

ACUS11 KWNS 112049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112049
INZ000-ILZ000-112145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112049Z - 112145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED WITHIN THE PAST 1-2 HRS ACROSS NRN
IL INTO NWRN IND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A STRONG WIND GUST...COULD ACCOMPANY THESE TSTMS. ALTHOUGH A
WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN IL INTO
NWRN IND OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS...WITHIN AN ARCING LINE OF ELEVATED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND PERHAPS INFLUENCED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN WI. ALTHOUGH LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA /INCLUDING THE 20Z DVN
SOUNDING/ SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ELEVATED...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST HALF HR. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG
MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF HAIL WITHIN
THE STRONGER CORES. A THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE MORE
CONDITIONAL...AND DEPENDENT ON WHETHER TSTMS CAN BECOME ROOTED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE EVOLUTION OF TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING HRS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN WEAK/LOOSELY FOCUSED FORCING FOR
ASCENT...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/COHEN.. 06/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 40818625 40388629 40048648 39998688 40328728 40848753
41408849 41658912 41998954 42178944 42178899 42188841
42118795 41558749 41448678 40818625

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