MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1033

ACUS11 KWNS 112134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112134
MIZ000-112330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112134Z - 112330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SVR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED SE OF A SFC
WIND-SHIFT AXIS THAT TRAILS SW OF A 1009-MB SFC LOW ANALYZED 35 WSW
APN...AND W OF A LAKE-HURON-AIDED SHALLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING
ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO THE SFC LOW. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED INVOF THE WIND-SHIFT AXIS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ENHANCED. WEAK TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP MLCAPE VALUES
BELOW 1000 J/KG...AND PREVENT PARTICULARLY ROBUST UPDRAFTS FROM
EVOLVING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...STRONG MID-LEVEL
NWLY/S -- IN EXCESS OF 45 KT AS SAMPLED BY APX/DTX VWP DATA -- WILL
SUPPORT STRONG DEEP SHEAR POTENTIALLY YIELDING A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS...PERHAPS ATTAINING WEAK SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LARGELY MITIGATE ANY TORNADO/SVR WIND
POTENTIAL. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET IN THE ABSENCE OF
STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT.

..COHEN/HART.. 06/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43648388 43458350 42998375 42688467 42998559 43718549
44568440 44608378 44348347 44078377 43808392 43648388

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.