MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1061

ACUS11 KWNS 131719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131719
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-131745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE-ERN TN / NRN AL / NRN GA / WRN NC / UPSTATE
SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131719Z - 131745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS TN AND SPREAD E AND S INTO ADJACENT STATES. WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY...AND ISOLD LARGE
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DISCUSSION...17Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS ERN KY WSWWD THROUGH THE KY/MO/TN BORDER VICINITY. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS A CU FIELD BECOMING AGITATED WITHIN SEVERAL
TRANSVERSE BANDS/GRAVITY WAVES PROPAGATING SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
--INDICATIVE OF A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 12Z BNA RAOB
SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND MODIFYING FOR EXPECTED
TEMPS IN MID 80S TO LOWER 90S GREATLY DIMINISHES CINH AND
EFFECTIVELY ERODES THE REMAINING CAP. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
IS FOCUSES FARTHER NE INTO FAR NERN TN/SWRN VA...HEATING AND THE
TRAILING INFLUENCE OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIKELY INITIATE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ZIPPERING SWWD WITH
TIME.

STRONG WLY FLOW IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER /40 KT/ AT KHTX AND KOHX AND
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT IN THE FORM OF DMGG WIND GUSTS ONCE ROBUST UPDRAFTS
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY. STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WLY FLOW IS NOTED AT KMRX
/50 KT AT 2 KM/...SIGNALING A HIGHER CONCENTRATION FOR DMGG STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A TORNADO MAY
EXIST DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF FLOW. AS SUCH...STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LOOSE CONGLOMERATION OF SMALL LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS
AS THE MOVE EWD.

..SMITH/CARBIN.. 06/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 34398604 34638820 35898812 36598689 36508400 36038251
35358169 34908223 34398604

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