MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1122

ACUS11 KWNS 182004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182004
KSZ000-NEZ000-182130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182004Z - 182130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN KS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A NW-SE
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS. OTHER STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL KS ALONG A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP /ON THE ORDER OF
6.5-7 C/KM/. HOWEVER...LOW-MID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS AND STRONG DIABATIC
WARMING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING 1500-2000
J/KG MLCAPE. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT SUGGESTING
MULTICELLS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE. STRONGEST STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WHERE A SWD MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IS INTERSECTING THE FRONT OVER NERN KS. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT PARAMETER
SPACE DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED SEVERE
EVENTS.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON 39899709 39539616 39169543 38539464 38259504 38959667
39289945 39869988 40019857 39899709

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