MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1142

ACUS11 KWNS 202220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202220
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-202345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND...NE SD...WRN-CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331...

VALID 202220Z - 202345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SERN ND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SWD INTO NERN SD AND
EWD INTO CNTRL MN. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF THE
CURRENT WATCH LATER THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005 MB LOW IN WCNTRL
SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS FAR SE ND INTO CNTRL MN.
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS WCNTRL ND. CELLS ARE
DEVELOPING FROM THE SFC TROUGH NEWD ACROSS ERN ND WHERE SFC WINDS
ARE BACKED AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ENHANCED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY IN ERN ND MAY BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD CONTAIN
HAIL DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BE
MORE PROMINENT WITH THE SFC-BASED STORMS TO THE EAST OF BISMARK.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP NEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM FARGO ND
SWD TO EAST OF ABERDEEN SD EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS APPEAR TO
ORGANIZE A LINE OF STORMS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE INTO WRN AND CNTRL
MN LATER THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 44919380 44829927 46510032 47559911 47879716 47689473
46769299 44919380

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