MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1187

ACUS11 KWNS 231927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231926
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-232100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SERN WI/PARTS OF NRN AND WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231926Z - 232100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WITHIN A DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BAND MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM -- BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN INCREASING INVOF AN EWD-MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW CROSSING ERN WI AND NRN/WRN IL...AHEAD OF WHICH
A MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS IS EVIDENT. WHILE THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY /ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS...STORM
ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY SHOULD BE HINDERED BY MARGINAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT EXIST N OF THE
IL/WI BORDER...AND THUS SLIGHTLY GREATER THREAT MAY EVOLVE IN THIS
REGION WITH TIME. FOR NOW HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING SWD INTO IL...WHERE FLOW BECOMES DECIDEDLY
WEAKER WITH SWD EXTENT.

OVERALL...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER N...BUT
WITH THE INITIATION ZONE ALONG THE OUTFLOW TO MOVE TOWARD/INTO LK MI
OVER THE NET COUPLE OF HOURS...THIS MAY MITIGATE NEED FOR A WW
ACROSS ERN WI AS WELL.

..GOSS/KERR.. 06/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 44428883 44388771 43948720 41978761 40608874 39429048
39789140 40179145 41089016 42568962 43948946 44428883

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