MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1189

ACUS11 KWNS 232026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232025
KSZ000-232230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232025Z - 232230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NCNTRL KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THE TIMING OF INITIATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST
ESTIMATE IS 22-23Z. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON A MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS NERN INTO NCNTRL KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES WWD THROUGH CNTRL CO. A LEE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SWRN KS NEWD INTO NCNTRL KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES. CUMULUS HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
LIKELY STILL REMAINS...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID-UPPER 90S. THIS REGION
EXISTS SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WHERE HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO
BEEN RISING SLIGHTLY...BUT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 30-35 KT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE RELATIVELY LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST STORMS WILL PROBABLY BECOME
OUTFLOW DOMINANT. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES AS STORMS INTERACT WITH WRN EXTENT OF THE MODIFYING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ.

..DIAL/KERR.. 06/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38930033 39589911 39999818 39969746 39389691 38689740
38779826 38719913 38020002 38930033

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