MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1203

ACUS11 KWNS 241922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241921
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-242115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/WRN ND/WRN SD/ERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241921Z - 242115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL -- WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY. WW MAY
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTENING/IMPLIED ASCENT
SPREADING EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ATTM...AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING WRN WY/WRN CO. VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS
SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE TO THE ASCENT...WITH CU INCREASING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND NOW OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

SHEAR REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA...AND SHOULD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH BACKGROUND CAPPING
SUGGESTS THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE
LOWER TERRAIN...AND THUS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
LIMITED. STILL...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTIVE OF
BRIEFLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SHOULD
COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION WARRANT...WW COULD EVENTUALLY
BECOME NECESSARY OVER PARTS OF THIS AREA.

..GOSS/KERR.. 06/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 48050269 47600156 46040136 45210121 44050179 42820210
41540220 41090315 41380404 42740421 43380477 44860626
47300639 47950512 48050269

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