MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1204

ACUS11 KWNS 241925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241925
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MAINE / SRN VT / SRN NH / WRN MA / NWRN CT /
ERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241925Z - 242030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SCTD PULSE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL EWD
DIRECTION FROM CNTRL-SRN NY NWD INTO VT. THIS LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM/COLD POCKET
OVER NERN PA THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. KENX VWP DATA SHOWS
WEAK WLY FLOW THROUGH 9 KM /LESS THAN 20 KT/...WHICH IS RESULTING IN
DISORGANIZED PULSING TSTMS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD AT
LEAST LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINAL
WIND DAMAGE IN POCKETS AS THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES EWD THROUGH
SRN NEW ENGLAND.

..SMITH/KERR.. 06/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 42087432 44117196 44187056 43617026 42697094 41377303
41537398 42087432

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