MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1314

ACUS11 KWNS 301935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301934
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-302200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...FAR SERN CO/WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301934Z - 302200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL HAZARDS SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM...BUT WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY INTO THE EVENING IF IT BECOMES EVIDENT THAT AN ORGANIZED
COLD POOL WILL FORM.

DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY /ONE OVER N-CNTRL NM AND ANOTHER IN SERN WY/
WHICH HAVE AIDED IN INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SUPPORTED MODEST PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NRN/ERN NM. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE ADJACENT
PLAINS OF ERN NM...YIELDING DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPENING INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AMIDST LOWER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS.

RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH-LEVELS /SAMPLED IN 12Z AREA
RAOBS/ WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR TO GREATER BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE
CURRENTLY NEAR 500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD ALSO HOLD HAIL SIZE TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE OR SMALLER DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF 30 KT MID-LEVEL
N/NWLYS SAMPLED IN PUX VWP DATA. THIS FLOW REGIME ATOP WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ELYS COULD FAVOR A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTER ACCELERATING
SWD IF SUFFICIENT CONGLOMERATION OF CELLS CAN DEEPEN A COLD POOL.
SHOULD THIS BECOME EVIDENT...A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE CONSIDERED.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 06/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 37340507 37500379 36380287 34170249 32960258 32210305
32110405 32340475 33080518 33860559 34610565 35690564
37340507

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