DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281233
SWODY1
SPC AC 281231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
STATES. MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A NARROW AXIS OF MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL CO BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS EASTERN WY
INTO EASTERN MT. SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AND MLCAPE
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF A FEW ROTATING STORMS
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL MINOR IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS OVER
IA/NORTHERN IL AND WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY MID
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
UPDRAFT INTENSITIES ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL PA. A COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND RATHER
STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN
THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

..HART/GARNER.. 07/28/2013

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