DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051931
SWODY1
SPC AC 051928

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT FRI JUL 05 2013

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL NY INTO VT AND NH...

...NY INTO VT...
ADJUSTED SLIGHT RISK NEWD INTO VT AND NH WHERE EXISTING STORMS WILL
PERSIST IN A VERY WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT...AND WITH SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR STORM LONGEVITY. THE MORE CELLULAR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY
MATERIALIZE WITH TIME AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD PRIOR TO SUNSET.

..JEWELL.. 07/05/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 05 2013/

...PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT GENERALLY NEUTRAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT CHANGES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NY/PA TODAY WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. DESPITE THE RATHER NEBULOUS UPPER FORCING
MECHANISMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR AND CAPE WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
HAIL. THE AREA THAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO SEE STORMS TODAY IS OVER
PARTS OF NY AND NORTHEAST PA WHERE STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING AND
MODEL CONSENSUS IS MOST CONSISTENT.

...MN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN LATER
TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES...COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL PROMOTE A FEW INTENSE
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ID/NV/UT...
MODERATELY STRONG /30-40 KNOT/ WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
FOR DEEP CONVECTION MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MT WILL HELP FOCUS
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SEVERAL AREAS OF CLOUD COVER ADD
UNCERTAINTY TO DEGREE OF THE THREAT...SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SEE TEXT
DESIGNATION.

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