DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301728
SWODY2
SPC AC 301726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WILL AMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT REACHES ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
THU. A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY SHOULD
TRACK E/SEWD TOWARDS THE S ATLANTIC COAST. A STOUT MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH A BROADER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING PORTION DECAYING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE N-CNTRL CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH A 50-60
KT 500 MB JET BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY WED
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD YIELD A ZONE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR
AND ELONGATED STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS. ROBUST INSOLATION ON THE NRN
PORTION OF THE PLUME OF 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS COMBINED WITH COOLING
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
LIKELY TO REACH 1500-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DECAYING FRONT AND POTENTIAL OUTFLOW FROM D1 CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED. THIS MAY ONLY YIELD ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE WHERE
THE MOST FAVORABLE KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC CORRIDOR WILL EXIST FOR
SUPERCELLS. HIGHER STORM PROBABILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED TOWARDS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR/BUOYANCY...SETUP
SHOULD FAVOR CLUSTERS/MARGINAL SUPERCELLS.

...SOUTHEAST...
BOTH CONVECTIVELY-PARAMETRIZED AND STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND A REMNANT
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD REMAIN
MODEST AND PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR LOW.
STILL...POCKETS OF STRONGER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD AID IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
DIURNAL HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
FORMING OVER THE CASCADES. DESPITE WEAK BUOYANCY...MODERATELY STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL S/SWLYS COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND/HAIL EVENTS AS ACTIVITY ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD N/NEWD OVER A MORE
DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE CASCADES.

..GRAMS.. 07/30/2013

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