DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 290732
SWODY3
SPC AC 290730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
BUT A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. HOWEVER....UPPER RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN FIRM ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

EAST OF THE ROCKIES...UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY WITHIN
TWO DISTINCT STREAMS...ONE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. AS THIS OCCURS... NORTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION TO THE NORTH OF A LINGERING FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND
PRECLUDES SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. BUT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD BECOME FOCUSED IN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET...ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE DAY...AS WELL AS IN A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WESTWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATELY LARGE CAPE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY BROAD AREA...COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS...WITHIN A
SEASONABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE LINGERING FRONTAL
ZONE. WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST. AND MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A BELT OF MODEST LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DEVELOPING EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...COUPLED WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING...COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. DEEP
LAYER FLOW FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEAKER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT STRONGER HEATING/STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER EAST...MAY
COMPENSATE...CONTRIBUTING TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.

..KERR.. 07/29/2013

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