MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1317

ACUS11 KWNS 022048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022047
NMZ000-AZZ000-022145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT TUE JUL 02 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN NM TO SERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022047Z - 022145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN
NM TO SERN AZ AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND TRACK SWWD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO MERGE/DEVELOP COLD POOLS TO ENHANCE A MORE
ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED SOME OF THE STORMS FORMING INVOF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE INTENSIFIED BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS. INITIAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER/SEVERE ACTIVITY
COULD BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER
KG/...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
/6.5 TO 7.5 C PER KM/ ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN NM. HOWEVER...LARGE
SURFACE T-TD SPREADS AND DCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG OVER THE WRN HALF
OF NM INTO SERN AZ SHOULD SUPPORT AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. THE WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH ANY STORM MERGERS/COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...THAT COULD
RESULT IN THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 07/02/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...

LAT...LON 36330506 34970473 33310556 32770860 32980983 33681000
34240876 35140856 34910735 35770664 36570649 36330506

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