MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1319

ACUS11 KWNS 032043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032043
NMZ000-COZ000-032215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT WED JUL 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE S-SW OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN
NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032043Z - 032215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING INVOF AND TO THE S-SW OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN
NM. LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...WITH HAIL A THREAT AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...AT 2030Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER NERN...NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM --- WITH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE AIR
MASS ACROSS MUCH OF NM HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE TO
AROUND 1000 J PER KG/...WHILE 30-40 KT NLY MIDLEVEL WINDS/SHEAR
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STORM SUSTENANCE/UPDRAFT ROTATION. STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF STRONGER
STORMS AND THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

IF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEGIN TO MERGE WITH COLD POOL
COALESCENCE...THEN A WATCH WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR PRIMARILY AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 07/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 37040517 36370467 36300371 35760326 35560393 35550470
34550500 33430539 32440519 32100577 32260677 32640769
33050816 33610849 33920819 34130744 34980723 36340684
36320615 37040517

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