MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1326

ACUS11 KWNS 052037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052036
NDZ000-MTZ000-052130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1326
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT FRI JUL 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MT...NWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 052036Z - 052130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EVOLVING ACROSS NERN MT AND FAR NWRN ND.
THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 20Z PLACES A WEAK SFC LOW AND
ATTENDANT TROUGH ACROSS ERN MT...CO-LOCATED WITH A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
TSTM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS DAWSON/RICHLAND COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A E-W ORIENTED FRONT POSITIONED JUST S OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN PROXIMITY TO AN
INSTABILITY/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS WRN ND...WHERE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F HAVE YIELDED MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT SLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS VEERING TO WLY ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR MULTICELL STRUCTURES. THUS...THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND
HAIL SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED/LIMITED...BUT IF TSTMS CAN
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SMALL MCS ACROSS WRN ND...THEN AN ENHANCED THREAT
FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS MAY MATERIALIZE...AND COULD REQUIRE
ISSUANCE OF A WW.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/05/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON 48810205 47780204 47180229 47120322 47030409 47090460
47470495 47850497 48850392 48940298 48810205

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