ACUS11 KWNS 092035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092034
KSZ000-092200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT TUE JUL 09 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 092034Z - 092200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS THAT
EVOLVE ACROSS WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID
SFC HEATING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO 104-108F
ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM WEST OF GCK
TO NEAR RSL. HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED/DEEPENED
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR PER GRADUALLY EXPANDING PRECIP CORES. GIVEN THE
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
PROPAGATE SLOWLY ESEWD INTO A HIGH PW AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WITH SFC TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ON
THE ORDER OF 50F. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER PRECIP CORES...ESPECIALLY IF
CLUSTERING OCCURS. SEVERE COVERAGE MAY REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT
A SEVERE TSTM WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING.
..DARROW/HART.. 07/09/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39050174 39209966 38729890 38009936 37720156 39050174
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment