ACUS11 KWNS 092158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092158
AZZ000-092330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT TUE JUL 09 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 092158Z - 092330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN E-CNTRL
AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WSWWD AND POSSIBLY GROW UPSCALE AND POSE A
THREAT FOR MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z TUS AND
GREATER PHOENIX RAOBS AND 20Z GPS PW SITES OVER CNTRL AND S-CNTRL
AZ...SHOW PW OVER THE SONORAN DESERT IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES. KIWA
RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 2150Z SHOWS ECHO TOPS 40-50 KFT OVER GILA AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES...INDICATIVE OF UPDRAFT VIGOR. SINGLE SITE 88D VWP
DATA SHOW 20-25 KT NELY FLOW AROUND 10 KFT ABOVE SEA LEVEL.
FURTHERMORE...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS RESULTING IN TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 100S OVER S-CNTRL AZ AND THE GREATER
PHOENIX METRO...YIELDING MODERATE BUOYANCY /2000 J/KG MLCAPE/ WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IF
STORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOWS LEAD TO UPSCALE
GROWTH AS THE STORMS MOVE FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE LOWER
DESERT...THEN A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND-PRODUCING MICROBURSTS WILL
CONCURRENTLY INCREASE AND PROMPT STRONG CONSIDERATION FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..SMITH/GOSS.. 07/09/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 31801116 32911245 33451246 33881186 34001119 33150997
32321003 31841045 31801116
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