MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1370

ACUS11 KWNS 101909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101909
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-102015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...ERN CO...NEB PANHANDLE...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101909Z - 102015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. WW WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED BY 20Z.

DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
INCREASED BUOYANCY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN WY INTO WRN KS.
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND CONVECTION DEEPENING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY MATURE/ORGANIZE AS THEY PROPAGATE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SUBSTANTIAL SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG SHOULD BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. LATEST VIS
IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD IS DEEPENING NEAR THE
CO/KS BORDER FROM CHEYENNE COUNTY TO HAMILTON COUNTY ALONG WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE. TSTMS COULD EASILY EVOLVE
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND SPREAD INTO WRN KS. FOR THIS REASON A
FAIRLY LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION.

..DARROW/HART.. 07/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 42640340 40550158 38529935 37099996 37350303 39610488
42370531 42640340

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