ACUS11 KWNS 101942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101942
ARZ000-OKZ000-102115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...OK...NWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101942Z - 102115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS
ACROSS OK INTO NORTHWEST AR.
DISCUSSION...RENEWED UPDRAFTS ARE FORMING INVOF OLD CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM GARFIELD COUNTY...ESEWD TO NEAR THE AR STATE LINE OVER
ADAIR COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN BOTH AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH SHOULD FORCE
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TO SETTLE TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 100F AND RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS. PW VALUES RANGE FROM
1.6-1.9 INCHES WHICH COULD ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
IF SINGLE CELL UPDRAFTS COALESCE INTO LARGER CLUSTERS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..DARROW/HART.. 07/10/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36329740 35789424 35269379 34999476 35199795 35889993
36859960 36329740
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