MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1372

ACUS11 KWNS 101945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101945
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-102015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PA...WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 101945Z - 102015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NY AND
WRN-CNTRL PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE NEEDED SOON ACROSS THE
REGION.

DISCUSSION...A LINEAR MCS IS ONGOING FROM NRN OH EXTENDING SWD INTO
CNTRL KY JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION.
SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F
EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS WRN PA AND WRN NY. MLCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. IN
ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88 VWPS SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE STORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WIND DAMAGE WILL BECOME LIKELY WITH THE
MORE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE
INTENSE CORES.

..BROYLES/HART.. 07/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 42997898 42198012 40848011 40018003 39617899 39797752
39907648 40067625 40717597 42727548 43667569 43997634
43857835 43647868 42997898

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.