ACUS11 KWNS 112056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112055
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-112200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 112055Z - 112200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 22Z.
DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS ALL BUT REMOVED CAP ACROSS ERN MT
AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING OVER THE SERN PLAINS OF MT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MATURE AND SPREAD INTO THE
WRN DAKOTAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE
CYCLE AND STORM MERGERS MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO AN MCS OVER WRN ND ON
NOSE OF LLJ BY LATE EVENING.
..DARROW/HART.. 07/11/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 49070234 45720245 44340283 44780448 45230573 46180562
47900492 49080489 49070234
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