MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1387

ACUS11 KWNS 132008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132008
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-132115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...NERN WY...WRN ND/SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 132008Z - 132115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SRN INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
GLANCE THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION THIS EVENING. GREATEST INFLUENCE
OF THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER WHERE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS A CORRIDOR OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS
SK INTO MB. HOWEVER...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MINIMIZING INHIBITION ACROSS ERN MT INTO NERN WY. CU FIELD IS
DEEPENING ACROSS NERN WY AND ALONG THE NRN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS
IN SD. ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY EMERGE FROM THIS ACTIVITY
WITH SOME NWD DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN MT IN A FEW HOURS.
WITH TIME SERN SK CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP INTO NWRN ND WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RESIDE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS EVOLVING CONVECTION.

..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 07/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 44290478 46410517 48900405 48630181 44330265 44290478

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