MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1388

ACUS11 KWNS 132053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132053
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-132230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KY...FAR SE IND...NRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412...

VALID 132053Z - 132230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WW 412
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
WITH SEVERAL STRONG STORMS NOTED. SOME ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN TRANSIENT
ROTATION WITH A FEW STORMS REACHING MARGINAL SVR STRENGTH.
ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW ATOP THIS MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IS RESULTING IN MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE GENERALLY AROUND
1000 J/KG PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS/. SHEAR ALSO REMAINS FAVORABLE
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT. AS SUCH...AN ISOLATED SVR
THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. A DIMINISHING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED IN A FEW HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

..MOSIER.. 07/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 36308622 38318650 38308410 36298386 36308622

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