ACUS11 KWNS 142253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142252
OKZ000-KSZ000-150015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN/CNTRL OK...S-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142252Z - 150015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH GRADUAL
WWD-MOVING STORMS FROM ERN OK/KS.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS
ERN OK WITHIN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ALONG AN EFFECTIVE
DRYLINE INDUCED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR ON THE E SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND DOWNSLOPE OFF THE OZARK PLATEAU. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS/STRATIFORM RAIN EARLIER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A
PERSISTENCE OF STRONG STORMS TILL AT LEAST SUNSET. IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH THE
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS SAMPLED IN THE PURCELL PROFILER.
STILL...MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR SAMPLED IN TULSA VWP DATA
SHOULD SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/WIND.
..GRAMS/MEAD.. 07/14/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35339558 35039507 34529522 34499571 34709626 35619707
36259718 36999732 37389734 37699713 37769660 35339558
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