MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1406

ACUS11 KWNS 162027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162027
MIZ000-162200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 162027Z - 162200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL...WITH SOME
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN A NARROW BAND ALONG AN
INLAND ADVANCING LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS RECENTLY
INTENSIFIED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE PICTURED ROCKS NATIONAL LAKESHORE.
THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE OF PEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA...WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 90/70. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT
MODESTLY SHEARED 30+ KT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW COULD STILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PENINSULA OF UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT IS RELATIVELY HIGH...AND PRECIPITATION
LOADING COUPLED WITH DOWNWARD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE GUSTS AT LEAST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A CONGEALING SURFACE
COLD POOL COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL
FORWARD/EASTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EASTERN PENINSULA...BETWEEN NOW AND 23-00Z.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 07/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...

LAT...LON 46708579 46788499 46268358 45808378 46068538 45978634
46168683 46368674 46708579

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