MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1516

ACUS11 KWNS 252126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252126
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-260000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN NC...WRN SC...NERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252126Z - 260000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUES OWING TO OROGRAPHIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. GSP
VWP DATA INDICATE MODEST MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WITH SPEEDS AROUND
20-30 KT THAT WILL ACT TO STEER CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT PIEDMONT REGION. DEEP SHEAR ACCOMPANYING
THIS FLOW MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF DMGG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IN THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS LIMITED
OWING TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN PLACE
FEATURING SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S. THIS
SHOULD MITIGATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT.
ALSO...PW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA ARE RELATIVELY LOW -- I.E. AROUND
1.0-1.3 INCHES PER GPS DATA -- AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED
WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 07/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 34748432 35448263 36378131 36038022 34358122 33908294
33978420 34748432

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