MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1517

ACUS11 KWNS 252151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252151
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-260015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT THU JUL 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MN...WRN PARTS OF THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI...NRN WI...WRN LAKE SUPERIOR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252151Z - 260015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WHILE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND 25 MILES SW OF ELY MN TO W-CNTRL
MN. A WAVY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW ACROSS FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND INVOF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AS
DCVA PRECEDING A COMPACT VORT MAX AFFECTS THE AREA. RELATIVELY COOL
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LIMITED
BUOYANCY...THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A FEW ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES/POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL/WINDS
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT TRACKS EWD/SEWD. WHILE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THE LIMITED
BUOYANCY MAY PROVE TO BE DELETERIOUS IN SUPPORTING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 07/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 45608800 44948931 44689114 44549443 45159556 46089584
46839495 47429339 48089088 46878807 45608800

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