MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1531

ACUS11 KWNS 262151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262151
TXZ000-262345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262151Z - 262345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING SW OF WW 447 INVOF A SFC
COLD FRONT THAT ARCS FROM NERN TX INTO PARTS OF SWRN TX. DEEP
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS RELATIVELY LIMITED ACROSS THE MCD
AREA...THOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED...SWD/SSEWD-MOVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS MARGINALLY TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION SUPPORTING SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
MODEST MID-LEVEL NNWLY/S PER AREA VWP DATA MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...AND MARGINALLY SVR WINDS/HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AOA 25F IN
MANY AREAS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY SVR POTENTIAL...WITH ANY SUCH POTENTIAL
FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL...AT MOST.

..COHEN/BROYLES.. 07/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31780093 32269903 32539792 32399743 31189741 30579907
30630066 31780093

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