MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1543

ACUS11 KWNS 272155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272155
LAZ000-TXZ000-280030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272155Z - 280030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE
FOCUSED INVOF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR LAKE
CHARLES LA WSWWD ACROSS PARTS OF S TX TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AROUND
50-60 MILES SSE OF DEL RIO TX...AND ALONG A WIND-SHIFT AXIS THAT
ARCS SSWWD TO THE S OF THE FRONT OVER THE TX BRUSH COUNTRY. STRONG
INSOLATION HAS SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
INVOF AND S OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. LARGE SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING DCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG IN MANY
AREAS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF SVR WIND GUSTS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP SHEAR PER AREA VWP DATA
SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION...WITH
PREDOMINANTLY PULSE-TYPE STORMS EXPECTED. ANY SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE MARGINAL...AT MOST.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 07/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 29779382 29149506 27159794 26939940 28780037 29029970
29029894 29369716 30339416 29779382

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