MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1544

ACUS11 KWNS 272224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272223
WYZ000-IDZ000-280000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN ID AND FAR WRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272223Z - 280000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INVOF THE
SALMON RIVER MOUNTAINS AND BITTERROOT RANGE IS ADVANCING ESEWD/SEWD
TOWARD/ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. MANY AREAS OF
CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY HAVE SUPPORTED
STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS HAVING MIXED
OUT INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S. DESPITE THE LIMITED DEGREE OF
BUOYANCY IN PLACE WITH MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MID-LEVEL
ASCENT PRECEDING A SUBTLE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
PRESENCE OF AROUND 25-30 KT OF MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW PER SFX VWP DATA
MAY SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN ID AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR WRN WY. DEEP
INVERTED-VEE PROFILES AND ENHANCED DCAPE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED BUOYANCY AND LACK OF STRONGER DEEP
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LARGELY MITIGATE THE SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 07/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...PIH...

LAT...LON 43291332 43721222 44221164 43811094 42901120 42471251
42701335 43291332

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.