MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1546

ACUS11 KWNS 280033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280033
KSZ000-COZ000-280130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO THROUGH SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449...

VALID 280033Z - 280130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF WW 449...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NWRN OK TO SWRN KS...TO A SFC LOW IN SERN CO. ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED BOUNDARY IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SWRN
KS. A LONE SUPERCELL REMAINS OVER SWRN KS AND IS MOVING SWD ALONG
THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. THE DDC 00Z RAOB SAMPLED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SHOWS MODEST /900 J/KG/
MLCAPE...7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LARGE 0-2 KM
HODOGRAPHS WHERE NEAR SFC WINDS ARE BACKED TO SELY. TREND HAS BEEN
FOR THE STORM OVER SWRN KS TO WEAKEN...BUT IT MIGHT REMAIN CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADO AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT HOUR. THE
STORM WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH AS IT CROSSES THE OK BORDER WHERE
HIGHER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND WEAKER INSTABILITY EXIST.

OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME NORTH OF
SFC LOW OVER SERN CO WHERE NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ECNTRL CO...SEVERE THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN
WHERE MORE STABLE NEAR SFC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A WWD MOVING
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY HAS ADVECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
HIGH PLAINS. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIME TO WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS INTO THIS MORE STABLE REGIME.

..DIAL.. 07/28/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37020064 37190244 38240336 39430418 39800282 38790145
37690005 37020064

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