MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1554

ACUS11 KWNS 290608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290607
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-290730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT MON JUL 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN NJ/SERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290607Z - 290730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN NJ TO SERN NY IS QUITE LOW...WITH A LIMITED THREAT
FOR A STRONGER WIND GUST.

DISCUSSION...RADAR/CAPPI IMAGERY OVER FAR NRN DE INTO ADJACENT SWRN
NJ AND OVER A PART OF FAR EAST CENTRAL-NERN PA INDICATED A COUPLE OF
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS HAVE TRACKED ENEWD INTO THESE AREAS...THOUGH
RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND WITH THESE STORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED INVOF AN EWD MOVING FRONT...THAT IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND TO ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z.
50-70 KT SSWLY MIDLEVEL JET IS RESULTING IN BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT OVER
CENTRAL NJ TO SERN NY...GIVEN PRECEDING CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION... IS INSUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THUS...THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND IN THE
CURRENT STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..PETERS/HART.. 07/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 39727505 40497498 41077499 41877477 42107425 41937353
41187363 40847401 40467415 40247412 39897428 39587469
39727505

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