ACUS11 KWNS 301900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301900
NEZ000-SDZ000-302100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD INTO NWRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 301900Z - 302100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR OVER
WRN SD...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ALL AREAS.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM NWRN SD INTO N CNTRL NEB...WITH NRN PORTIONS DRIFTING SWD DUE
TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS ND.
S OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S F RESULTING
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE BLACK HILLS SWD INTO WRN NEB WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU
FIELDS DEVELOPING. THE BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL...A FEW PERHAPS OVER 2.00" DIAMETER. A BRIEF TORNADO COULD ALSO
OCCUR ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
..JEWELL/MEAD.. 07/30/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42220237 43400295 44250367 45210399 45660380 45310189
44770067 43899994 43319966 42499972 41610012 41470088
41540206 41910215 42220237
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