MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 031912
FFGMPD
NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-040110-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0145
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 PM EDT WED JUL 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 031910Z - 040110Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SCATTERED CONVECTION
INCREASES IN COVERAGE WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A
STAGNANT FLOW PATTERN.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/T'STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
SEEN ON LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS GA...SC AND PARTS OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. 3 HR RAINFALL RATES OF 2 - 4 INCHES PER MESONET
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COHUTTA NATIONAL FOREST IN NRN GA
HAVE BEEN SEEN AS OF 18Z. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN DEEP
MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AS SEEN ON BLENDED
TPW IMAGERY AND INCREASED SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CAUGHT BETWEEN BROAD
SCALE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AND A LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SLOWLY RETROGRADING ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC.

BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 500 - 1500 J/KG PER 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS ACROSS ERN GA AND
THE WRN CAROLINAS. WITH LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS PER
MORNING RAOBS...EXPECT THE TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND DEEP
MOISTURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A CONTINUED
FLOW OF 20 - 30 KTS AT 850 MB PROMOTING TRAINING OF CELLS. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES OF 1-3 IN/3HR ARE SPECKLED ACROSS THE THREAT
AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDED ON A REGIONAL BASIS. WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED FORCING ALOFT...THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE THREAT AREA.

OTTO

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON 34688533 35148526 35678483 36118364 36638236 36958107
36828038 36468044 35508115 34858274 34318344 33978429
34078494 34688533

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