MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 162130
FFGMPD
OKZ000-TXZ000-170030-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0162
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL TX INTO SWRN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 162049Z - 170030Z

SUMMARY...THE COMBINATION OF LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TX AND POSSIBLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CELL MERGERS COULD
LEAD TO POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE/TROUGH AXIS EAST OF
THE IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN NM IS
THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTN. OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT... HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TX
LOWERED 1 AND 3 HR FFG RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY. REGIONAL/MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MDT STRATIFORM PRECIP FROM
CDS SOUTH AND WEST TO MAF TO POSSIBLY BEGIN TO MERGE WITH
ORGANIZED/POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN CELLS LIFTING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE ORGANIZED CELLS VERY CLEARLY
WITH ENHANCED COOLING OCCURRING ALOFT. THIS MERGER APPEARS LIKELY
TO FORM ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOWER FFG AND THE 15Z HRRR APPEARS
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AXIS FROM SWRN OK BACK SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD
SJT. AS A RESULT... FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
DURATION OF THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HRS.

MUSHER

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 31330162 32240134 33120064 33730055 35370082 35519963
34449869 33459862 32709900 31429991 30770062 30720137
31330162

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