DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021633
SWODY1
SPC AC 021630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT FRI AUG 02 2013

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD
INTO THE OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE GENERAL NWRN U.S. TROUGH/S CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE/ERN U.S. TROUGH
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN
CHANGE BEING A SLOW NWD EXPANSION OF THE S CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT SAGGING SWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW COMPLICATES THE
PATTERN. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL FOCUS
THE MAIN AREAS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE OZARKS...
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ATTM IN A FEW AREAS -- INCLUDING
ERN MT...THE SD VICINITY...AND NERN OK/ERN KS INTO THE OZARKS.
WHILE RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TIME WILL
LIKELY HINDER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE MOIST/DIURNALLY
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WARM
ADVECTION-AIDED STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...LOCAL THREATS FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH
STRONGER CELLS WARRANT MAINTENANCE OF SLIGHT RISK FORECAST.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...
MODEST DESTABILIZATION NEAR/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING/WEAK SURFACE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE WRN NY
VICINITY INVOF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INDICATED ACROSS THE AREA
ATTM.

WHILE THE LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL...MODERATELY STRONG WSWLYS AT MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
-- THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO.

..GOSS.. 08/02/2013

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