DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210036
SWODY1
SPC AC 210034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2013

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW NEAR GRAND FORKS ND WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN ND EXTENDING SWWD INTO NCNTRL SD. SFC
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WHICH IS
RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS A BROAD CORRIDOR. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STORM INITIATION EARLY THIS EVENING. MLCAPE
VALUES ESTIMATED AT 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40
KT EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AND THE 00Z SOUNDINGS COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL
AS THE CHANCE FOR SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT DECREASES TOWARD THE MID TO
LATE EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 08/21/2013

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