DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101721
SWODY2
SPC AC 101719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB INTO NRN
KS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NERN
QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER
ONTARIO. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER UPPER FLOW WILL EXTEND AS
FAR S AS VA...WHERE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXIST...FOCUSING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXTENDING W OF THIS AREA WILL BE A DIFFUSE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR RAIN AND STORMS
ACROSS KY...TN...AND AR.

TO THE W...NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER SWRN NEB
DURING THE DAY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD NEAR I-80 AND
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD ALONG THE
ORE/WA COAST...AND WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG
STORMS OVER WA.

...NEBRASKA INTO NRN KS...
THE FRONT SHOULD GENERALLY LIE ACROSS NRN NEB INTO CNTRL IA
EARLY...AND THE REMNANTS OF A NOCTURNAL CLUSTER OF STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS IA AND SRN MN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A HAIL THREAT...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
WITH TIME ON THE SWRN FRINGE OF THE OUTFLOW AS HEATING OCCURS. THE
MOST ROBUST STORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS CNTRL
AND WRN NEB NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND CONTINUED SWD INTO NRN KS DURING
THE EVENING. HERE...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...BUT WEAK SHEAR PROFILES. WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS...STORM
MODE SHOULD BE MAINLY MULTICELLULAR. LARGE HAIL IN THE 1.50 - 2.00
INCH DIAMETER CATEGORY APPEAR LIKELY ALONG WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS.

...ERN WA...
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
ONGOING ANY TIME DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE WILL AID IN
FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AS
WELL AS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

...SRN VA INTO NC...
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND STRONG HEATING S OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODEST FLOW AND DEEP SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH VERY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER COULD RESULT IN A FEW WET MICROBURSTS OR
DAMAGING OUTFLOWS.

...FAR ERN OK...NERN TX...AR...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION...WITH EARLY RAIN AND STORMS AGAIN ONGOING ACROSS NRN AR INTO
TX. S OF THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY...HEATING WILL RESULT IN GREATER
DESTABILIZATION AND ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. WEAK SHEAR
WILL RESULT IN PULSE OR MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 08/10/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.