DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111724
SWODY2
SPC AC 111723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN KS AND NRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN
STATES...WITH AN TROUGH AXIS SWEEPING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL EXTEND FROM SRN ONTARIO SWWD INTO MI/OH/IND BY AFTERNOON...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT...EXTENDING FROM SRN QUEBEC SWD
INTO THE DELMARVA TUE MORNING.

TO THE W...WEAK NWLY FLOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH A DIFFUSE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS KS AND MO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO FOCUS BOUTS
OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...RESIDUAL STEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN STATES...AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
NWD ACROSS SRN BC.

...KS INTO NRN OK...
HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS SRN KS...AND
PERHAPS INTO FAR NRN OK MON MORNING...SUPPORTED BY AN EARLY SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET BUT LIKELY DWINDLING DURING THE LATE MORNING. LATER IN THE
DAY...HEATING WILL OCCUR S AND W OF THE OUTFLOW...WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM WRN/SRN KS INTO NRN/ERN OK. MODEST LOW
TO MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WITH THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
LIKELY ALONG A CORRIDOR NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

...SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND AND OH...
MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS AND HEATING WILL RESULT IN AROUND 2000
J/KG MUCAPE BY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES REACHED NEAR
THE SFC TROUGH/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT FROM SERN MI INTO NRN IN AND
OH. MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO OVER 30 KT AND FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY
COULD RESULT IN A FEW CELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL
HAIL OR WIND...FURTHER SUPPORTED BY STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
RESULTING IN TILTED/FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS.

...DELMARVA INTO ERN PA/NJ OVERNIGHT...
MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD NWD INTO ERN PA AND NJ OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SHIFTS INTO THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS SHOULD
INCREASE INSTABILITY...AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM...ANYWHERE FROM NRN VA INTO MD...DE...PA AND
NJ. WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KT...A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND A RESIDUALLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND.

..JEWELL.. 08/11/2013

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