DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241718
SWODY2
SPC AC 241716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 24 2013

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AS AN IMPULSE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING NEAR THE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES EWD AWAY FROM A MOIST AXIS...MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY FROM ERN MN ENEWD INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM MINNEAPOLIS MN NEWD TO MARQUETTE MI SHOW
MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MULTICELLS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY ISOLATED
WITH WWD EXTENT DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

..BROYLES.. 08/24/2013

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